The Donald J. Trump administration, in a consequential development, has finally threatened/cajoled the Kiev regime into engaging in the peace process to end the war with Russia. Both the US and Ukrainian delegations outlined a 30-day truce plan, during which the warring parties would negotiate between themselves to arrive at a permanent settling of the conflict.
Now, the question on everyone’s mind is: ‘Will Russia accept the truce?’ The short and simplistic answer is most probably not.
The reason is likely because there have been multiple previous manifestations to that effect, and also, right after the proposal was floated, the Russian commentators almost in unison rejected it, including the influential philosopher Alexander Dugin, who has been an absolute cheerleader for the peace process and for the rapprochement between US and Russia.
Moscow’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov – before the proposal was officially presented – has said that a 30-day truce only serves the purpose of giving Ukraine breathing room to rearm and reorganize itself.
It makes logical sense that Russia opposes this truce: it is winning the war, and it’s not even close.
Despite what the USAID-media would have you believe, while Kiev’s forces are making a valiant defense all over the 600-mile-long frontline, the Red Army has momentum like never before in this war.
In the last 48 hours, the much-hyped Ukrainian bridgehead in Russia’s Kursk region is being rapidly strangled around the city of Sudzha.
And in the Eastern Donetsk Oblast, the Russians advance in multiple directions, with a strategy of ‘death by a thousand cuts’ that is making the woefully undermanned reserves run back and forth to plug the holes.
Logic dictates that the winning party dictates the terms under which conflicts are settled, not the losing side. So no one will be surprised if Russia says no.
But does that mean that the peace process is over?
Not at all.
There’s a real sense that the Russian government is fully engaged in the Peace Process and the détente with Trump’s US, and the same applies personally to President Vladimir Putin.
We know that because of what they say and how they say it, and because of the broader assessment they make of the Trump team, his policies and the anti-liberal aspects of the MAGA movement in general.
It’s highly unlikely that Putin will not find a way to keep the process going strong. There are skilled negotiators in both sides, and they have been in touch this whole time, so it’s unlikely that the US team just went on a limb on a losing proposition.
However, in the end, Russia will insist on its stated goals: the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhie and Kherson are now part of Russia after the plebiscite, as enshrined in the Russian constitution. That includes the parts of these regions that Moscow still does not control – Zaporozhie city, inhabited by one million people.
Besides that, they want guarantees for Russian-speaking minorities in the country, they will insist that Ukraine remain a neutral country, and undergo processes of Denazification and de-militarization.
It will not be an easy negotiation, but luckily, Donald J. Trump excels at the art of the impossible.
Read more:
BREAKING: Ukraine Agrees to 30-Day Ceasefire with Russia After Trump Strong-Arms Zelensky
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