THE national rice inventory at the start of February fell 4.6% month on month, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.
Rice stocks hit 2.10 million metric tons (MT) as of Feb. 1.
Year on year, the national rice inventory rose 38.9%, it added.
Rice held by households as of Feb. 1 fell 24.7%. Commercial entities held 18.0% less rice month on month, while National Food Authority (NFA) holdings fell 1.5%.
Year on year, NFA stocks rose 516.7%, while rice held by commercial entities rose 30.4%, and holdings of households rose 15.9%.
“Of this month’s total rice stocks, 48.4% were from the commercial sector, 37.8% were from households, and 13.8% were from the NFA depositories,” the PSA said.
“Normally, stock levels in the first three months of the year go down until the dry season harvest starts entering the market,” Federation of Free Farmers National Director Raul Q. Montemayor said via Viber.
He said the year-on-year rise in inventory follows record imports of about 4.8 million MT in 2024, “some of which were not consumed in 2024 and carried over to 2025.”
Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said the main concern is the farmgate price of palay at P15-16 per kilo, which could dampen the impact of the harvest on inventories.
He said traders are only willing to pay between P16 and P18 per kilo due to the competition from imported rice, whose landed cost is now at P35 per kilo.
“We hope that under the food security emergency, additional funding will be provided to the Department of Agriculture so it can procure more dry palay at P23-24 per kilo,” he said.
The NFA has raised the buying price to P18 per kilo for fresh palay (unmilled rice) and P24 for clean and dry palay.
NFA administrator Larry del Rosario Lacson said on Wednesday that millers were paying P20-P22 per kilo for clean and dry palay, adding that fresh or wet palay usually fetches P5 less.
Mr. Cainglet noted that the current budget for palay procurement is the equivalent of 12-13 days, or 3% of rice demand.
“Ideally, government procurement should be at least 15% of consumption.”
Inflation eased to 2.1% in February from 2.9% in January as rice inflation dropped to 4.9%, the sharpest decline since April 2020.
To bring down rice prices, the government has lowered tariffs and has declared an emergency that triggers the release of government rice stocks.
Arze G. Glipo of the Integrated Rural Development Foundation said on Wednesday that production costs are rising while monopolies in key commodities distorting rice markets.
Eduardo Landayan, Vice-President of the AMMA-KATIPUNAN farmers’ group, noted that in Nueva Ecija and Isabela, which account for more than 20% of national rice output, palay prices have dipped to P15-P18 per kilo because traders are reluctant to buy palay because their warehouses are still stocked with rice imports.
He said the Rice Tariffication Law gave traders and importers access to cheap imported rice that they can use during harvest season to delay buying and force palay prices down.
Crop scientist Teodoro M. Mendoza said the threat of climate change and reliance on the international rice market subject the industry to price volatility, especially if major rice exporters suffer from extreme weather events.
He urged the government to give the NFA an additional P100 billion to procure at least 25% of the domestic rice harvest.
He also called for measures to raise household incomes of farmers and workers, expand irrigated land, and diversify sources of food to include more plant-based protein. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza