Pennsylvania is increasingly seen as the key to the White House in 2024. Both sides are spending a ton of political capital on the state as a result.
We recently pointed out that Pennsylvania has been shifting Republican since 2020. He is even making gains in deep blue Philadelphia. That’s going to make a big difference.
NBC News recently looked at the state and how the poll numbers are shaking out. They noted that Trump is gaining significant support from the so-called ‘Latino Belt’ in the eastern part of the state.
From Real Clear Politics:
Focus on these four collar counties right outside Philadelphia – Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks – more than a fifth of the vote statewide is going to come out of there. And look what’s been happening here. Last pre-Trump election in these collar counties outside Philly, Democrats won them. Obama won by nine points, about 120,000 votes. Look what happened in 2020: almost a 20 point Democratic margin, nearly a 300,000 vote margin. This is where the Democrats have been growing – suburbs, places with lots of concentrations of high college degrees.
Can Harris do even better in those collar counties? That’s critical for her.
And then, from Trump’s standpoint, there’s a lot of rural counties in the state that have gotten redder, small, rural counties. But let’s talk about this collection here. Some people call this the Latino belt of Pennsylvania. These are counties that have some small to mid-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations. And we’ve been talking about Trump improving, relative to 2020 and 2016, among Hispanic voters. Well, you can see it. Here are some of the cities in that Latino belt in Pennsylvania. Reading, Pennsylvania. It’s 70% Latino.
Now, it was overwhelmingly Democratic in 2020. Joe Biden won by 45 points. But look at that. That’s down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazelton, Pennsylvania, more than 60% Hispanic. In 2012, Democrats won it narrowly. It’s now a double-digit Trump place. Allentown, it has come down 10 points in its margin for Democrats.
Watch the video below:
NBC’s Kornacki: Shift Towards Trump In “Latino Belt Of Pennsylvania”
See more – https://t.co/AgwD53enXU
“We’ve been talking about Trump improving, relative to 2020 and 2016, among Hispanic voters… Hazelton is more than 60% Hispanic. In 2012, Democrats won narrowly, but it’s… pic.twitter.com/94ZVPz0LMs
— RCP Video (@rcpvideo) October 6, 2024
Trump has ways to get to 270 votes in the Electoral College without Pennsylvania, but it would be much easier if he wins there. He has an extremely good chances of doing so.
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