Donald Trump’s second term will have significant implications for U.S. relations with countries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, most of whom endorsed Kamala Harris.
His strength and unpredictability keep leaders like Putin, Xi, Khamenei, and Kim Jong Un off balance. While he took a tough stance on China and held a firm line with U.S. adversaries during his first term, his second term is likely to see an even tougher Trump, as the U.S. is already engaged in active, if indirect, conflicts with Russia and Iran, while tensions with China and North Korea seem higher now than they were four years ago.
Trump may seek to align the military and intelligence communities with his views on America First patriotism, emphasizing nationalism and competence over DEI initiatives. He will support Israel against Iran and is likely to approve more sanctions or even consider direct strikes on Iranian targets. As a state sponsor of terror, Iran plays a central role in fueling threats from groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Houthis, making it a primary focus for mitigating regional threats.
The threats from Putin and Xi are more intense now than in 2016, while Europe faces tougher economic conditions. Although mainstream media has stirred fears that Trump will abandon U.S. allies, this view isn’t consistent with his policies from his first term or with his current platform.
Trump is clear that he wants NATO and Taiwan to take greater responsibility for their own defense, but this does not equate to abandoning them. Until recently, Taiwan had reduced its military conscription to just three months while expecting the U.S. to shoulder its defense needs. Preserving Taiwan’s independence and countering China are imperative to U.S. national security, but Taiwan should demonstrate its commitment by maximizing its own defense efforts before asking the U.S. to cover the difference.
Among the changes NATO countries must make are increasing military spending and refraining from trade and security deals that undermine U.S. policy. For example, Turkey needs to stop bypassing sanctions to trade with Russia, and Germany should reconsider its trade ties with China. Many NATO countries should also consider reinstating conscription.
Trump is expected to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, accelerating the economic decoupling from China and cutting off funding for Xi Jinping’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He is also likely to enforce strict secondary sanctions against China and North Korea for supporting Russia in Ukraine. It’s within the realm of possibility that he could even threaten U.S. allies with secondary sanctions if they trade with Russia or violate U.S. restrictions on China.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump is expected to negotiate with Putin, though the specific terms and implications remain unclear. What is certain, however, is that with Trump in office, Putin is unlikely to expand beyond Ukraine. Poland, for instance, may feel safer with Trump in power. While Trump maintained a working relationship with Putin, Moscow publicly stated their preference for Biden and even endorsed Kamala Harris.
If the mainstream media’s claims that Trump intends to surrender Ukraine to Russia were accurate, it would stand to reason that Putin would prefer Trump not Kamala. The reality is that U.S.-Russia relations under Trump are more complex and nuanced than the media’s simplistic narrative of collusion. In fact, there isn’t a single policy from Trump’s first term, nor one currently projected, that puts Russia’s interests above those of the U.S.
The media often labels Trump as an isolationist, but this characterization is misleading.
Trump supports international trade and investment, provided they benefit the U.S., and he is willing to block deals that don’t. The same applies to international treaties and agreements; Trump won’t engage in global accords unless they are advantageous for the U.S. Generally, he favors bilateral over multilateral agreements, a stance aligned with historical U.S. policy. Apart from organizations like the UN, WTO, WHO, NATO, and NAFTA, the U.S. typically avoids multilateral commitments. Trump has even considered withdrawing from some of these, calling them “a bad deal” for America.
A second Trump administration is likely to be bad news for America’s adversaries, which translates to positive outcomes for the American people.
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